2022 Billboard Prediction

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Background will be added. See A Statistical Model For Predicting the Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Lists for more details on the background of this project.

in progress year end list

1. Glass Animals - Heat Waves (ceil: 1, floor: 1; 11879)

2. The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber - Stay (ceil: 2, floor: 2; 10421)

3. Harry Styles - As It Was (ceil: 3, floor: 3; 9074)

4. Latto - Big Energy (ceil: 4, floor: 6; 7959)

5. Ed Sheeran - Shivers (ceil: 4, floor: 6; 7879)

6. Justin Bieber - Ghost (ceil: 4, floor: 6; 7703)

--- 7500 - approximate 2021 Top 5 threshold ---

7. Kodak Black - Super Gremlin (ceil: 5, floor: 8; 7329)

8. Elton John & Dua Lipa - Cold Heart (PNAU Remix) (ceil: 8, floor: 11; 6964)

9. Adele - Easy On Me (ceil: 7, floor: 12; 6819)

10. Jack Harlow - First Class (ceil: 7, floor: 13; 6712)

11. Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits (ceil: 8, floor: 12; 6671)

12. Lizzo - About Damn Time (ceil: 8, floor: 13; 6602)

--- 6300 - approximate 2021 Top 10 threshold ---

13. Future Featuring Drake & Tems - Wait For U (ceil: 9, floor: 14; 6260)

14. Lil Nas X - Thats What I Want (ceil: 14, floor: 15; 5743)

15. Imagine Dragons X JID - Enemy (ceil: 14, floor: 15; 5561)

16. GAYLE - abcdefu (ceil: 14, floor: 19; 5319)

17. Bad Bunny & Chencho Corleone - Me Porto Bonito (ceil: 15, floor: 20; 5073)

18. Doja Cat - Need To Know (ceil: 16, floor: 23; 5043)

19. Doja Cat - Woman (ceil: 17, floor: 20; 4996)

20. Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow - Industry Baby (ceil: 16, floor: 23; 4907)

--- 4900 - approximate 2021 Top 20 threshold ---

21. Morgan Wallen - Wasted On You (ceil: 20, floor: 24; 4720)

22. Kate Bush - Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God) (ceil: 17, floor: 26; 4706)

23. Carolina Gaitan, Mauro Castillo, Adassa, Rhenzy Feliz, Diane Guerrero, Stephanie Beatriz & Encanto Cast - We Don't Talk About Bruno (ceil: 16, floor: 26; 4702)

24. Post Malone Featuring Doja Cat - I Like You (A Happier Song) (ceil: 20, floor: 27; 4500)

25. Bad Bunny - Titi Me Pregunto (ceil: 24, floor: 26; 4441)

26. Harry Styles - Late Night Talking (ceil: 21, floor: 27; 4390)

27. Nicky Youre & dazy - Sunroof (ceil: 24, floor: 29; 4136)

28. Morgan Wallen - You Proof (ceil: 25, floor: 29; 4065)

29. Steve Lacy - Bad Habit (ceil: 24, floor: 30; 4043)

30. Post Malone & The Weeknd - One Right Now (ceil: 30, floor: 31; 3702)

31. Beyonce - Break My Soul (ceil: 28, floor: 35; 3558)

32. Em Beihold - Numb Little Bug (ceil: 30, floor: 33; 3529)

33. Olivia Rodrigo - Good 4 U (ceil: 31, floor: 33; 3491)

34. Cody Johnson - 'Til You Can't (ceil: 34, floor: 42; 3280)

35. OneRepublic - I Ain't Worried (ceil: 31, floor: 44; 3252)

36. Walker Hayes - Fancy Like (ceil: 33, floor: 42; 3243)

37. Luke Combs - The Kind Of Love We Make (ceil: 32, floor: 43; 3231)

38. Bad Bunny - Moscow Mule (ceil: 34, floor: 43; 3218)

39. The Weeknd & Ariana Grande - Save Your Tears (ceil: 34, floor: 42; 3210)

40. Dua Lipa - Levitating (ceil: 34, floor: 42; 3193)

41. Drake Featuring 21 Savage - Jimmy Cooks (ceil: 34, floor: 46; 3183)

42. Lil Baby - In A Minute (ceil: 34, floor: 44; 3156)

43. Gunna & Future Featuring Young Thug - Pushin P (ceil: 35, floor: 51; 3035)

44. Zach Bryan - Something In The Orange (ceil: 41, floor: 46; 2993)

45. Doja Cat & The Weeknd - You Right (ceil: 43, floor: 51; 2910)

46. Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) - Smokin Out The Window (ceil: 39, floor: 51; 2908)

47. Dove Cameron - Boyfriend (ceil: 45, floor: 51; 2818)

48. Joji - Glimpse Of Us (ceil: 45, floor: 53; 2800)

49. Doja Cat - Vegas (ceil: 45, floor: 53; 2790)

50. Jessica Darrow - Surface Pressure (ceil: 43, floor: 55; 2777)

51. SZA - I Hate U (ceil: 45, floor: 53; 2777)

52. Jordan Davis Featuring Luke Bryan - Buy Dirt (ceil: 49, floor: 55; 2705)

--- 2680 - approximate 2021 Top 50 threshold ---

53. Cole Swindell - She Had Me At Heads Carolina (ceil: 52, floor: 55; 2642)

54. Muni Long - Hrs And Hrs (ceil: 52, floor: 56; 2598)

55. Nicki Minaj - Super Freaky Girl (ceil: 43, floor: 63; 2563)

56. Bailey Zimmerman - Fall In Love (ceil: 53, floor: 61; 2509)

57. Becky G X Karol G - MAMIII (ceil: 55, floor: 61; 2458)

58. CKay - Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) (ceil: 55, floor: 61; 2457)

59. Morgan Wallen - Sand In My Boots (ceil: 56, floor: 62; 2417)

60. Megan Thee Stallion & Dua Lipa - Sweetest Pie (ceil: 56, floor: 63; 2403)

61. Walker Hayes - AA (ceil: 57, floor: 63; 2397)

62. Karol G - Provenza (ceil: 57, floor: 64; 2315)

63. Camila Cabello Featuring Ed Sheeran - Bam Bam (ceil: 60, floor: 66; 2293)

64. Drake Featuring 21 Savage & Project Pat - Knife Talk (ceil: 62, floor: 67; 2254)

65. Doja Cat - Get Into It (Yuh) (ceil: 62, floor: 67; 2239)

66. Bad Bunny - Efecto (ceil: 62, floor: 67; 2229)

67. Luke Combs - Doin' This (ceil: 66, floor: 71; 2137)

68. Wizkid Featuring Justin Bieber & Tems - Essence (ceil: 65, floor: 73; 2105)

69. Bailey Zimmerman - Rock And A Hard Place (ceil: 67, floor: 74; 2096)

70. Lauren Spencer-Smith - Fingers Crossed (ceil: 67, floor: 74; 2090)

71. Tyler Hubbard - 5 Foot 9 (ceil: 67, floor: 74; 2083)

72. Bad Bunny - Despues de La Playa (ceil: 68, floor: 82; 1992)

73. Bad Bunny & Rauw Alejandro - Party (ceil: 68, floor: 81; 1985)

74. Adele - Oh My God (ceil: 69, floor: 83; 1971)

75. Kane Brown - Like I Love Country Music (ceil: 72, floor: 81; 1938)

76. Parmalee - Take My Name (ceil: 72, floor: 82; 1892)

77. Lil Durk Featuring Gunna - What Happened To Virgil (ceil: 75, floor: 88; 1884)

78. NEIKED X Mae Muller X Polo G - Better Days (ceil: 72, floor: 88; 1876)

79. Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You (ceil: 64, floor: 101; 1868)

80. Lil Durk Featuring Morgan Wallen - Broadway Girls (ceil: 72, floor: 84; 1864)

81. THE ANXIETY: WILLOW & Tyler Cole - Meet Me At Our Spot (ceil: 75, floor: 88; 1851)

82. Chris Stapleton - You Should Probably Leave (ceil: 75, floor: 88; 1827)

83. Cole Swindell / Lainey Wilson - Never Say Never (ceil: 77, floor: 91; 1802)

84. Future - Puffin On Zootiez (ceil: 74, floor: 92; 1783)

85. Jon Pardi - Last Night Lonely (ceil: 79, floor: 92; 1774)

86. Jason Aldean - Trouble With A Heartbreak (ceil: 80, floor: 93; 1773)

87. Bad Bunny & Bomba Estereo - Ojitos Lindos (ceil: 76, floor: 93; 1772)

88. Scotty McCreery - Damn Strait (ceil: 80, floor: 92; 1770)

89. Tate McRae - She's All I Wanna Be (ceil: 83, floor: 96; 1715)

90. Russell Dickerson & Jake Scott - She Likes It (ceil: 83, floor: 99; 1707)

--- 1700 - approximate 2021 Top 100 threshold ---

91. SleazyWorld Go Featuring Lil Baby - Sleazy Flow (ceil: 83, floor: 100; 1699)

92. ERNEST Featuring Morgan Wallen - Flower Shops (ceil: 84, floor: 98; 1689)

93. Brenda Lee - Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (ceil: 72, floor: 115; 1660)

94. Maren Morris - Circles Around This Town (ceil: 89, floor: 103; 1655)

95. Stephanie Beatriz, Olga Merediz & Encanto Cast - The Family Madrigal (ceil: 89, floor: 103; 1647)

96. JNR CHOI & Sam Tompkins - To The Moon! (ceil: 89, floor: 105; 1645)

97. Charlie Puth - Light Switch (ceil: 92, floor: 110; 1592)

98. Kane Brown - One Mississippi (ceil: 92, floor: 107; 1584)

99. Eric Church - Heart On Fire (ceil: 91, floor: 110; 1579)

100. Doja Cat Featuring SZA - Kiss Me More (ceil: 91, floor: 108; 1577)

analysis

Since March, it has been clear that "Heat Waves" will be the #1 song of 2022. Lovely. Notwithstanding the quality of the song, its tenacity in the Top 10 has been nothing short of impressive. Its success is very reminiscent of "Levitating," "Blinding Lights," and "Perfect" in recent years: the song is popular enough among younger audiences, and it has a strong adult fanbase as well that contributes to its bottomless play.

Although its decline is clear now, "Easy on Me" was never going to be the biggest song of the year. As with many ballads by Adele that embrace solemn lyrics at a pedestrian tempo, these songs dominate the "winter season" and quickly fall off as the "spring season" comes into swing on the Hot 100.

It is always interesting to observe this dynamic. We saw the dominance of Encanto on the Billboard Charts throughout the spring, and now that film and its songs have dissolved into irrelevance. We now look to Harry Styles, Jack Harlow, Future and Drake, and assorted TikTok one-hit wonders that are defining the summer season. Around September, it will be interesting to see how quickly the current hits fade from the Hot 100 as we invite the autumn round of singles in. Regardless, this has been another year in which an absurd number of tracks see a flash of virality, while a select few have a distinctive stronghold on the charts and dominate the current year and one before.